The world is yet to see the final outcome of the United Nations Climate Change conference in Paris (November 30-December 11), whose opening session was attended by leaders of all countries. We will have to wait till tomorrow to see the contents and conclusion of the COP21 agreement. However, the Paris summit has already contributed to a much-awaited change in the climate of India-Pakistan bilateral relations.
External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj has returned from her maiden visit to Islamabad with a remarkable achievement: putting the badly derailed Indo-Pak dialogue process back on track. However, the effort to rescue the baby of bilateral talks from the bathwater of the constant blame-game between our two countries began when India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi met his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif on November 30 on the sidelines of the Paris conference.
Two things seemed suspiciously significant about the Modi-Sharif get-together in France. First, the two leaders met for barely 120 seconds. But that they met at all said something, considering that barely two months earlier, all they had done was wave to each other across a table - no one-on-one meeting, not even a handshake - at the UN peacekeeping summit in New York. Such was the chill in Indo-Pak relations. In August, the visit of Sartaj Aziz, advisor to Sharif on national security and foreign affairs, to New Delhi was called off at the last minute due to conflicting conditions for NSA-level talks set by New Delhi and Islamabad. The cancellation of Aziz's visit led to the usual war of words between political and media establishments in the two countries, habituated as they are to talking at and not to each other.
However, the second aspect of the two-minute tete-a-tete between Modi and Sharif was even more revealing. Sitting in an uncharacteristically informal setting, they seemed to be engaged in giving final touches to an understanding they had already reached, possibly through a longish telephonic conversation before coming to Paris or some prior back-channel negotiation between their trusted representatives.
Looking at the photograph of the meeting between the two leaders - both Modi and Sharif displaying utmost concentration on their faces − I had tweeted on the same day: "If their body language shows anything, 2 PMs are keen to resume #IndoPak talks. JUST DO IT!"
I was, as usual, viciously trolled by staunch Modi
bhakts, most of whom are opposed to the resumption of India-Pakistan talks. Mere mention of our neighbour's name is like holding up a red rag to a raging bull. One of them was more civil, even humorous. He replied to my tweet: "When matchmaker aunty sees a boy and a girl talking innocuously!" I responded with two more tweets: "I am no 'matchmaker', my dear friend. But I predict the 'boy' and 'girl' will meet again, and again!". "I am absolutely confident that #ModiSharifMeet will soon produce some +ve steps in breaking the #IndoPak deadlock. Let's wish them success."
And the deadlock has indeed been broken by two swift developments, both being the direct outcomes of the climate-changing Modi-Sharif meeting in Paris - first the ice-breaking talks between the national security advisors in Bangkok on December 6, followed by Sushma Swaraj's even more productive visit to Islamabad three days later.
In a strange sense of poetic justice as far as Modi
bhakts are concerned, the significance of the December 6 talks in Bangkok transcended the framework of India-Pakistan ties. Many in the Sangh Parivar were commemorating that day as ''Shaurya Divas" (Day of Bravery) to mark the act of demolition of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya. For them, being anti-Muslim is simply an extension of being anti-Pakistan - and vice versa. Paradoxically, the interlocutors of Modi and Sharif were making December 6 a ''Shanti Divas'' (Day of Peace) of sorts by laying, in distant Thailand (which too has its own ''Ayodhya'') a small but strong brick to build the edifice of India-Pakistan reconciliation.
The joint statement issued in Bangkok constitutes a 180-degree turn vis-a-vis the inflexible positions both countries had taken in August, which led to the acrimonious cancellation of Aziz's much-anticipated visit to Delhi. One of the reasons for the spat was the Modi government's insistence that Aziz's talks with Ajit Doval, India's NSA, should be solely confined to the issue of terrorism, in contrast to Islamabad's persistent stand that Kashmir should also be included in the ambit of NSA-level talks. Bangkok wiped out all traces of that unnecessary squabble. The joint statement says that India and Pakistan, "guided by the vision of a peaceful stable and prosperous South Asia", would resume discussions covering "peace and security, terrorism, Jammu and Kashmir, and other issues, including tranquility along the LoC".
The joint statement issued after Sushma Swaraj's meeting with Aziz in Islamabad (she also met Prime Minister Sharif on the sidelines of the Heart of Asia conference on Afghanistan) has broken more ice, and hence contributed even more to removing the chill in Indo-Pak relations. Addressing a key Indian concern, which has been a big source of India's mistrust towards its neighbour, Sharif's government has assured that steps are being taken "to expedite the early conclusion of the trial" in the case relating to the 26/11 attacks on Mumbai. This assurance is clearly in response to the global community's growing "intolerance" towards acts of terrorism. Sushma Swaraj articulated this view categorically when she asked countries around the world "to ensure that the forces of terrorism and extremism do not find sanctuaries and safe havens in any name, form or manifestation".
Swaraj's Pakistan visit certainly demonstrates that our two countries are happily veering towards a common understanding on the issue of terrorism. In the Islamabad statement, the two sides have "condemned terrorism and resolved to cooperate to eliminate it". The reference to mutual cooperation in the fight against terrorism is highly significant. It resonates with the agreement (unfortunately not implemented) between Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf when they met in Havana in 2006 on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned summit to put in place an India-Pakistan anti-terrorism institutional mechanism. This means, hearteningly, that Prime Minister Modi is not averse to following a path of change with continuity in dealing with Pakistan.
In addition to the issues mentioned in Bangkok, the Islamabad joint statement has broadened the basket of subjects that India and Pakistan would discuss in the months to come - "Siachen, Sir Creek, Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project, Economic and Commercial Cooperation, Counter-Terrorism, Narcotics Control, Humanitarian Issues, People to People exchanges and Religious Tourism". Fittingly, the two sides have called it the "Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue", which is just another name for the stalled Composite Dialogue which New Delhi and Islamabad had initiated way back in 1997. This is yet another proof of the Modi government adopting the path of "change with continuity" - rather more continuity than change. One hopes that Modi shows the vision and boldness to continue, indeed further build on, the consensus framework to resolve the highly contentious Kashmir issue, which his predecessors, Dr Singh and Atal Bihari Vajpayee, had discussed with their Pakistani counterparts. The broad contours of this consensus framework have been lucidly elaborated in the book
Neither a Hawk Nor a Dove, by Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri, Pakistan's former foreign minister.
Perhaps the most important remark Swaraj made in Islamabad was when she said it was time for India and Pakistan to display "maturity and self-confidence to do business with each other". Obviously, there is an admission in this statement that the governments of both India and Pakistan were somewhat lacking maturity in taking the bilateral ties forward after Modi's spectacular gesture of inviting Sharif to New Delhi for his swearing-in ceremony in May 2014. Thereafter, the dialogue process, devoid of clarity and political will, followed the sad pattern of one step forward, one step backward. Finally, wisdom seems to have dawned on the two Prime Ministers. Let us hope they stay committed to the path of meaningful and result-oriented talks, irrespective of criticism and provocations of any kind.
(The writer was an aide to former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Comments are welcome at sudheenkulkarni@gmail.com)Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.