First Front Will Define 2019 Election

When I was growing up in Kolkata in the 1970s, Red Road was almost universally regarded as the smoothest road in the city for a motorist. In part, this was a legacy from its days as an air strip during World War II. It was here, right in the midst of the grand Maidan in the city, that the second Trinamool Congress government, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, was sworn in on May 27. Red Road is now officially known as Indira Gandhi Sarani. There was some irony that the two parties that entirely boycotted the oath-taking ceremony were the Reds or the CPI(M), and the Congress (Indira).

On a serious note, the ceremony became a celebration of non-Congress and non-BJP parties, seeking to put together an alternative for the country in 2019. In the past, this potential alliance has been called the Federal Front. I would now see it as the First Front. As the recent state assembly elections have shown, the Congress and the BJP are not relevant in large parts of the country. The BJP's victory in Assam cannot hide its failure to win more than a handful of seats and votes in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Kerala. The Congress lost two state governments and its tie-up with the CPI(M) in Bengal was a disaster.

As such, the First Front of regional and state parties today represents the largest bloc of Indian voters and national sentiment. This realisation made Mamata Banerjee's swearing-in a milestone. It brought together a whole range of non-BJP, non-Congress leaders who will define the Lok Sabha in 2019. There is Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress itself, which looks well placed to repeat its performance of 2014 and carry home at least 35 of West Bengal's 42 seats. But she is not alone.
 Arvind Kejriwal made the trip to Kolkata. His Aam Aadmi Party, I predict, will have Lok Sabha seats in at least three states in 2019: Delhi, Punjab and Goa. Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav, despite the JD(U)-RJD combine being part.y of the CPI(M)-Congress alliance in West Bengal, broke away from their erstwhile partners and stood by Mamata Banerjee on her big day. Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav (Samajwadi Party) flew down from Lucknow and Farooq Abdullah of the National Congress journeyed all the way from Jammu and Kashmir.

From Tamil Nadu, Chief Minister Jayalalithaa (AIADMK) could not come but wrote an extremely gracious letter to Mamata Banerjee. The DMK patriarch, M. Karunanidhi, was represented by his daughter Kanimozhi. In 2019, either the AIADMK or the DMK will win big in Tamil Nadu. It is notable that they both see themselves as naturally belonging to the First Front/Federal Front. 

The DMK and the JD(U)-RJD have fought elections in recent times in alliance with the Congress. Both perceive they have been let down by the immature leadership and the unpopularity of the Congress and are mindful of what this means for 2019. It is interesting that BJP allies are also giving appropriate signals. N. Chandrababu Naidu, Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh and head of the Telugu Desam Party, sent two senior MPs, one of them a cabinet minister, to Kolkata for the swearing-in. Political journalists on Red Road that day were engrossed in discussing what that meant.
 The Congress has now written itself out of huge parts of the electoral map. It has painted itself into a corner by partnering the Communists and treating regional parties with disdain and its trademark arrogance. The BJP has become complacent and believes, even as its government is under-performing and failing to tackle economic and social concerns, that is has already won the 2019 election. The fact is that a gradual but focused rallying together of regional and state parties, with an idea to provide a government that is genuinely representative of India's diversity and truly practices operative federalism, is emerging as a distinct possibility. Maybe even a probability.

The swearing-in event on May 27, which became virtually a political conclave of non-BJP, non-Congress forces, was a turning point in this endeavour. By putting so many tall politicians and formidable state and regional leaders on the same platform, it formally promoted the Third Front to the status of the First Front. I believe that by 2019 some of the BJP's and the Congress' remaining allies will migrate to the First Front. This is their obvious home. And the Federal Front is the obvious fulcrum of a truly popular and responsible government in Delhi. The next three years, right up to May 2019, will be exciting and history making. After all, what Bengal thinks today...

(Derek O'Brien is leader, Parliamentary party Trinamool Congress (RS), and Chief National spokesperson of the party.)

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