Indian politics is interestingly poised at the moment. At one end of the pole is Mr Modi who is changing the basic texture of a well-established edifice and at the other end is the opposition which is hopelessly hanging on to the last vestiges of the old establishment; people are caught in the middle and the intellectuals are standing virtually in no man's land. When the old establishment is challenged, "anxiety, despair and disappointment" are the natural corollaries of the proven past. "Caution and skepticism" are the hallmarks of the transition and interregnum. Boisterous optimism and reckless confidence defines the new identity, the personality of the new being, noise not silence is the mid-wife of the new change. Nobody knows whether the change brought by the new regime, in terms of ideological foundations and political super structure, is permanent or not. It is in this context that a lot of anxiety is visible in the opposition camp, but Modi seems pretty relaxed.
There is a kind of mystery around opposition unity. There is speculation and there are serious doubts. There are questions of mortality and longevity and also issues of unity in diversity. The Modi camp, on the other hand, looks cohesive and muscular, bound together with mammoth state power and Machiavellian tricks, and the fragile opposition is shaken with every blow. It is not too long ago that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, till then perceived to be the tallest opposition leader and supposedly the architect of opposition unity, royally ditched the bandwagon and climbed aboard the Modi train. It dealt a crushing blow to opposition unity. Before any attempt at recuperation, the opposition contended with new murmurs air that Sharad Pawar may also follow Nitish's path. His party decided to not attend the meeting of 16 parties called by Sonia Gandhi last week. No conclusive reason was given. It is understood that the Gujarat Rajya Sabha election is to be blamed for the new glitch. Apparently, Sharad Pawar's party did not support Ahmed Patel and both the NCP MLAs voted for the BJP candidate.
Sonia Gandhi and Sharad Pawar were never the best of friends, nor do they share a cordial relationship despite Sharad Pawar being part of the UPA and a cabinet minister in Manmohan Singh's government for ten years. One must remember that Sharad Pawar was a Congressman to begin with but during the mid-70s, he formed his own group, ditched his mentor Vasantdada Patil and became the young Chief Minister of Maharashtra. It was Sonia's husband, Rajiv Gandhi, who brought back Sharad Pawar in the Congress in the late 1980s. After his sudden death and with the Congress emerging as the single-largest party in the 1991 elections, Sharad Pawar positioned himself as a serious candidate for Prime Minister but had to surrender before Narasimha Rao. The rumour was that it was Sonia Gandhi who tilted the balance against Sharad Pawar and that Narasimha Rao was her choice. It is said that Sharad Pawar has not forgotten this till now. He was young, he had the support base, and among all the contenders, he had the resources and the most number of MPs, but he failed because he could not convince Sonia Gandhi that her husband's friend would remain loyal to her. She chose Narasimha Rao who posed no threat to the Nehru-Gandhi legacy.
It was this simmering tension which finally culminated in a split when Sonia Gandhi was made the president of the Congress party. Sharad Pawar was the man who raised Sonia Gandhi's foreign origin and along with P A Sangma and Tariq Anwar formed his own party, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). But by 2004, when the Congress came back to power and Manmohan Singh became the Prime Minster, Sharad Pawar's political clout had depleted majorly, and his party was playing second fiddle to the Congress even in Maharashtra politics. He coyly joined the UPA and had to be satisfied with the low-profile Agriculture Ministry. Now Sharad Pawar and his party are too weak to pose any threat to the BJP-Sena government in Maharashtra. Based on his stature and experience, it is assumed that he could play the role of a senior statesman in uniting the opposition. But if he is upset, then it is a bad omen for the anti-Modi front.
Modi and Amit Shah are working on a single-point agenda: that opposition unity should remain a mirage till 2019 and that in the process, the Congress ends up completely isolated. The unleashing of government agencies against Lalu Yadav and his family was a well-thought out strategy to create a wedge between Lalu and image-conscious Nitish Kumar. It worked beautifully for Modi. Nitish is now solidly with Modi and very soon, JD(U) ministers will be seen in his cabinet too. Now Lalu is not mincing his words, his son Tejashwi is travelling through Bihar on a mass-contact yatra to galvanise his social base and solidify the backward-minority combine vote bank. He is also working to get back the Dalit vote by requesting Mayawati to run for the Rajya Sabha from Bihar. Lalu is also working on plans to get Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati together on the same platform to stop Modi In his own burrough of Uttar Pradesh. But with Nitish's defection, the damage is already done. And the opposition has been left licking its wounds.
The problem with the opposition is far deeper. Since Congress has been the ruling party for 54 out of 70 years of independence, most political leaders have spent a major part of their political career opposing the Congress and its policies. Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati, Sharad Yadav, Deve Gowda, Karunanidhi, Naveen Patnaik have emerged leaders in an "anti-Congress" ambience. These leaders are not naturally comfortable in the company of the Congress. And the Congress is not used to coalition politics despite spending ten years running a coalition government from 2004 to 2014. They always consider themselves to be the natural party of governance. It is to be remembered that the Indian political spectrum has taken a paradigm shift since the emergence of Modi at the national level, and "Anti-Congress-ism" has been replaced by "Anti-BJP-ism", but even so, old habits die hard. The Congress is finding it difficult to adjust to the new realities and other opposition leaders are at odds to adjust to the Congress style of functioning.
The Congress is also riddled with inner tension. Though Sonia Gandhi is still holding the reigns of the party, Rahul Gandhi is waiting in the wings; the transition is taking longer than desired and is breeding insecurities. The party is speaking in different voices, leaders are discussing different strategies, a game of sabotage and survival is on. Senior leaders are definitely not comfortable with Rahul Gandhi and his style. Rahul Gandhi till now has not been able to form his own team and he does not command the respect of other parties either. The leaders pf other parties are far more senior and experienced than him so they do not heed his opinions. Sharad Pawar, for all his reservations with Sonia, will be more at ease with her than her son.
Therefore, for the opposition to form an effective unit, it has to evolve its own cohesive "centre" and that will only happen if the Congress becomes a cohesive unit with a well-defined cohesive "centre". So Modi can sit happy as long as the Congress is not able to figure out who will be its leader or advisers to the leader. The counter narrative that the anti-BJP front needs to present is affected by all this. It can take shape only if the Congress adjusts to the new realities of India and its challenges. Unfortunately, it is still in the old mould. So opposition unity will hit more speed-breakers before it attains any kind of shape.
(Ashutosh joined the Aam Aadmi Party in January 2014.)Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.